GG News Bureau
Patna, 19th Sept: With Bihar set to vote in high-stakes assembly elections this October-November, a new survey by the People’s Pulse Research Organization has revealed a razor-thin contest between the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB).
The 45-day survey, conducted between August 1 and September 15 across all 38 districts, shows the NDA leading by just one percentage point over the INDIA bloc partners, suggesting an unpredictable outcome for Bihar’s 243-seat assembly.
A Contest Without a Clear Wave
The survey projects the NDA—comprising JD(U), BJP, Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), and Rashtriya Lok Morcha—at 41–44% vote share, marginally ahead of the Mahagathbandhan (RJD, Congress, Left parties and VIP) at 40–42.5%.
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) accounts for 6–8%, while others make up 7.5–9%, within a ±3% margin of error. The findings mirror the narrow margins of the 2020 assembly polls, underscoring how small shifts in caste loyalties, ticket distribution, and alliance cohesion could decide the result.
Unlike past elections shaped by big narratives—anti-Lalu in 2005, “sushasan” in 2010, or job promises in 2020—the 2025 contest lacks a unifying theme. Voters are instead focused on local issues: MLA performance, unemployment, inflation, and migration.
Caste Arithmetic and Ticket Battles
Caste remains Bihar’s decisive factor. Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), who make up 36% of the electorate, are emerging as the swing bloc. Analysts note that while Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) has historically enjoyed their support, disenchantment is visible, with sections leaning toward the MGB if ticket distribution broadens beyond RJD’s traditional Muslim-Yadav (MY) base.
The NDA, meanwhile, grapples with seat-sharing tensions, particularly with Chirag Paswan’s LJP(RV) and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM. Any rift could weaken its narrow lead.
Women and Youth: Key Power Brokers
Women voters, nearly half the electorate, remain strongly aligned with Nitish Kumar due to schemes like prohibition, pensions, and support through the JIVIKA network. Political observers continue to describe women as the “silent weapon” of the NDA.
Young voters, vocal about joblessness, display a split mood. While many are frustrated with unemployment and migration, caste loyalties still play a heavy role in their choices.
Regional Undercurrents and Law & Order
In Mithila and Simanchal, communal undertones shape preferences. BJP leaders invoke fears of a return to “Jungle Raj” under the RJD, while MGB supporters accuse the NDA of rising corruption and governance fatigue.
Nitish Kumar, at 74, faces questions of age and fatigue but still retains a perception as a stabilising figure—“flawed but unmatched.”
Kingmaker Role for Prashant Kishor?
The JSP, with its 6–8% share, may not emerge victorious but could play spoiler by eating into anti-incumbency votes that would otherwise consolidate behind the Mahagathbandhan. Kishor’s campaign focuses on migration, education, and corruption, resonating with youth, though it remains unclear if this sympathy will translate into votes.
The Road Ahead
The survey makes one fact clear: Bihar’s 2025 election is poised for a photo finish. With the NDA ahead by a whisker, and the MGB banking on expanding its caste coalition, the deciding factor will be turnout, last-mile mobilisation, and ticket distribution in the weeks ahead.
As Bihar braces for its most closely fought battle in years, the stakes extend beyond Patna—this election could shape the national balance of power within the INDIA bloc and NDA camps alike.
