Dr. Kumar Rakesh
The months leading up to the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections were thick with unease. Political players and community leaders alike sensed that the real contest wasn’t just constituencies or manifestos—it was caste arithmetic. As the major alliances labored to balance social priorities, their ticket-distribution choices revealed much more than they intended.
The BJP’s mathematics of upper-caste anchoring
For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is contesting 101 seats in Bihar, the allocation of 49 of those tickets to upper-castes underscores a deliberate strategy of consolidation. Of these, 21 went to Rajputs (population ~3.45 %), 16 to Bhumihars (~2.86 %), 11 to Brahmins (~3.66 %) and 1 to Kayasthas (~0.6 %).
While the overall percentage is lower than the BJP’s 2020 upper-caste haul (59 out of 110), the share remains sizeable. Many analysts argue this demonstrates the BJP’s decision to double-down on its upper-caste anchor rather than truly reaching out to a wider base. Upper-caste voters in Bihar have publicly expressed frustration—feeling the BJP has shifted away from its promise of “clean governance” and upward mobility to a politics of numbers and identity.
This upper-caste focus sits uneasily in a state where the largest bloc is the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), estimated at ~36 % of the population. By allocating nearly half its seats to a group that forms perhaps 15 % of the population, the BJP appears to risk alienating both its EBC potential and the broader backward-class coalition it may need to sustain power.
The RJD: Yadavs, Muslims … and the limits of the core base
On the opposing side, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), led by Tejashwi Yadav, contesting 143 seats, opted for a mirror-image strategy in its own way. It allocated 51 tickets (36 %) to Yadavs, who form ~14.26 % of the state’s population. Muslims, comprising ~17.70 % of the population, received only 19 seats (≈13 %)—the same percentage as in 2020.
That imbalance has drawn sharp critique, with one observer remarking that “Muslims have become the oil in RJD’s lantern”—fueling the machine but receiving limited recognition themselves. By contrast, Yadavs received roughly 150 % more tickets than their demographic share, paralleling the upper-caste bonus seen in the BJP’s allocations.
A deeper look: strategies, risks and the entrenched arithmetic
In theory, both parties professed inclusivity. The BJP emphasised “Sabka Saath, Sabka Vishwas,” the RJD invoked slogans of “representation proportional to population.” Yet both proceeded to play it safe: return to hard-core base rather than break new ground.
For the BJP, this meant doubling down on upper castes while offering only marginal representation to EBCs, OBCs and minorities. For the RJD, it meant sustaining its MY (Muslim-Yadav) core but showing limited flexibility beyond it. The result? Both parties appear locked into the very caste arithmetic they might have hoped to transcend.
This is not just about tickets. It’s a signal to voters: where your identity lies counts, and parties still believe they win by placing you. But in a state where more than one-third of the population are EBCs—often termed the “36 % election” bloc ignoring that reality may limit any party’s ability to claim broad-based legitimacy.
A missed opportunity for real renewal
Rather than evolve, Bihar’s major parties seem to be repeating past patterns under new names. The BJP’s emphasis on upper castes, in a context where their political influence may be plateauing, suggests risk: alienation of younger, aspirational backward voters who want inclusion, not just preservation. The RJD’s over-prioritisation of Yadavs may reinforce its strengths—but at the cost of broader reach and long-term coalition building.
In essence, both parties have opted for short-term calculus over structural change. The result: ticket distributions that reflect fear and conservatism more than innovation and inclusion. This is a missed opportunity. Bihar’s evolving caste survey, shifting aspirations and the emergence of EBCs as key actors ought to have encouraged bold realignment. Instead, we see a retreat to comfort zones.
Caste remains the currency of power
As Bihar goes to polls, ticket distribution has already revealed the enduring power of caste in electoral strategy. The BJP and RJD have largely stuck to familiar scripts—allocating favours to their traditional bases, preserving community privileges rather than sharing power more widely. But in a state where demographics are shifting and the “electoral dividend” from backward communities may hold the key, such conservative choices may not be sufficient.
The question is no longer just who gets the ticket; it is whether these parties are willing to offer representation that matches the real population—not just the loyal vote-bloc. For Bihar, the next frontier isn’t just seats won—it must be inclusive change. Until that happens, the caste arithmetic of 2025 risks becoming the caste fatigue of 2030.
About Author -:
Dr. Kumar Rakesh, Sr Journalist, Writer, Political Analyst, Broadcaster has been active in journalism and writing for approximately 35 years. He has worked in several esteemed media organizations in Bharat and has been instrumental in creating 9 TV news channels in the country. Through his career, he has had the opportunity to travel to over 50 countries, reporting and writing on various topics. Dr. Rakesh has received numerous accolades and honors both in Bharat and internationally for his contributions to the field of Media & Communications. Currently, he has been serving as the Editorial Chairman of Global Governance News Group & Samagra Bharat Media Group, New Delhi & 20 countries. contact – at krakesh8@gmail.com
